Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 1.918666 2.027542 2.141623 2.270473 2.412448 2.564674 2.740981
2025-09-07 1.765103 1.917304 2.084265 2.282480 2.513354 2.776282 3.102061
2025-09-14 1.641801 1.814963 2.010643 2.250829 2.541542 2.887278 3.337925
2025-09-21 1.545240 1.731004 1.945736 2.216247 2.553873 2.969973 3.536247
2025-09-28 1.463722 1.657135 1.884825 2.177840 2.553066 3.029842 3.703868
2025-10-05 1.429138 1.635905 1.884020 2.210657 2.640775 3.206168 4.041085
2025-10-12 1.399421 1.617843 1.884530 2.243042 2.727665 3.385834 4.400684
2025-10-19 1.370386 1.598347 1.881054 2.268423 2.804940 3.556503 4.765414
2025-10-26 1.329839 1.561922 1.853328 2.258789 2.831630 3.655051 5.028413
2025-11-02 1.292315 1.527433 1.825983 2.247263 2.853526 3.746488 5.289028
2025-11-09 1.251947 1.487464 1.789326 2.220342 2.850420 3.798207 5.487064
2025-11-16 1.213903 1.449013 1.752894 2.191461 2.841839 3.839473 5.670220
2025-11-23 1.187745 1.425827 1.736705 2.191293 2.877529 3.956383 6.012673
2025-11-30 1.167329 1.409473 1.728997 2.202650 2.931199 4.107201 6.444362
2025-12-07 1.134120 1.374705 1.694426 2.172775 2.918062 4.143375 6.652261
2025-12-14 1.102008 1.340392 1.659186 2.140117 2.898165 4.165546 6.833727
2025-12-21 1.070525 1.306007 1.622653 2.103824 2.870063 4.170480 6.978339
2025-12-28 1.062513 1.303437 1.630713 2.134835 2.953307 4.382846 7.626951
2026-01-04 1.054784 1.300873 1.638469 2.165423 3.037485 4.605383 8.353213
2026-01-11 1.045414 1.295634 1.642018 2.189383 3.111673 4.816578 9.107878
2026-01-18 1.026831 1.276875 1.625178 2.180290 3.127496 4.913427 9.582363
2026-01-25 1.008627 1.258151 1.607753 2.169408 3.139268 5.002875 10.059866
2026-02-01 0.987157 1.234253 1.581970 2.143985 3.123317 5.032792 10.368749